East Asian Nuclear War: The potential of drills

Currently a media war is taking place between the DPRK (Democratic Peoples Republic of Korea) and the United States. Initially the DPRK responds to what it perceives as a threat from ROK (Republic of Korea) and the United States. Instead of launching their own exercise to demonstrate potential, they launch a verbal attack including the "use of nuclear weapons". This understanding does not, however, provide the necessary insight in what is really going on. In the following post I will try to depict what is going on by using a map as starting point (see the thumbnail).

DPRK, ROK and the USA

It is commonly known that the leadership in the DPRK has felt (and feels) threatened by the USA despite current US activities in other parts of the world (especially Iraq and later Afghanistan). The current statement (see above) is clearly stressing that viewpoint. This is perhaps not wrong because of the naval exercise taking place close to North Korea, which they condemn. Much of the distress is related to the sinking of the ROK naval vessel known as the Cheonan case, which supposedly the DPRK sank. A body of international experts have concluded that DPRK is to blame for the sinking although the DPRK has not accepted the blame. One could imagine a response from the international community and notably the UN Security Council, but experts say this is not likely, because China is reluctant to go against Pyonyang.

DPRK and China versus the USA and Taiwan

The Chenonan game is not only one in town. China is a growing power in East Asia especially. Today China considers Taiwan as part of continental China. This can be observed in Chinese responses to American sale of arms to Taiwan. The above mentioned naval exercise also sends a signal to China about the strength of the American naval presence. In other words a highly advanced American army combined with a Taiwanese ditto equipped with American weapons poses a strong and dangerous opponent in a potential row over Taiwan. In other words when the Chinese does not respond to the sinking of the Cheonan vessel, it is probably not because they want to protect DPRK but rather the desire to keep the pressure on the US to disarm and leave the area so that China can become the dominant power. This is evident if one observes China's own naval exercises in the South Chinese Sea, and the row with neighbouring states such as Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia and Taiwan just to mention a few .